A possible projection that upholds a bull-market commencing when oil has finally bottomed out. Note the X-wave from 2009 into the projected Wave II bottom. On Macd the C III makes a higher low compared to 2009s Macd bottom (denoted CII). Compared to stocks I think oil and gold is a bit delayed due to the anticipated dollar strength.
Obvious ugliness seen as the 50 mda is starting to rollover. In price the downfall wave of 2014 should repeat itself this year and 0.85 has been long awaited. That would create a 1-2 back from 2001, if it hods that is….My aim is around 0,3 (in earlier post), and such a downfall will reflect a normal balance of strength vs the Usd, if history is any guide. You also see that Rsi was rejected at the 50 level and sub 30 readings are expected sooner or later.
One thing is certain, a bottom is always elusive.
Rangebound churn in 2016 is hardly decipherable in terms of waves. Looking at macd 2016 looks like a small wave up, then a hair-pin ascending abc, an x-wave and then abc down where the c-wave is flat. Taking the whole complex into account it looks like 1-2 and then 3 may be on its way. In 2016 and including today we can record 7 peaks at top of range, and the last peak seems to be breaking out. Is a retest of 4500 a sure thing ?
Note trix is entering positive territory. Did the Trump bash solidify a long term bottom ?